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Were the security arrangements adequate for the entire journey? Evidently not. In comparison with Franz's uncle's visit in 1910 to Sarajevo there were hundreds of police on duty. There was a double cordon of police lining the streets and any suspected terrorists were arrested. However, during this visit there were 120 policemen to guard the 4 mile route - hardly enough to call security.
The "diplomatic teletype" had been sending messages from advisors all over the world. One message remained in all these notes - the Archduke should abandon the trip to Sarajevo. The Serbian ambassador Jovan Jovanovic visited Austrian finance Minister Bilinski and warned that should the journey go ahead then:
"some young Serb might put a live round instead of a blank cartridge in his gun, and fire it."
However, Bilinski replied:
"Let us hope nothing happens,"
and the warning was never passed on. Despite the warnings the Archduke not only wanted the inspection to go ahead but he also instructed for all security to be relaxed. He was utterly naïve to ignore such warnigns and takes full responsibility for the poor security arrangements in my opinion.
PRINCIP TRAINED TERRORIST?
Many people argue whether Gavrilo Princip was actually a trained terrorist. There are arguments for and against the possibility of him being a terrorist.
He could well have been trained as he had visited Serbia several times and on the one occasion kissed the ground of Serbia upon his arrival. Also he was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire that were trying to fight for their independence. However, should that not happen they were also trying to protect themselves from the changes that Franz Ferdinand was planning to enforce. There is also records of him being part of various groups which have links to other terrorists who supplied explosives.
On the other hand, Gavrilo might not have been a trained terrorist as he was very young and it was unlikely that he would have had a lot of training. Not only did his age affect his chances of getting into a soceity but he was physically undeveloped and sick with a constant threat of the return of TB. During the assassination, Princip did say he didn't look and doesn't know how many shots he fired as he was very excited. This doesn't sound like the normal traits of a trained marksman.
In my opinion, Gavrilo was not a trained terrorist but infact an opportunist who, hearing of the Archduke's visit to Sarajevo decided to take his chance at assassinating him.
WAS SERBIA RESPONSIBLE?
Who was to blame for Franz Ferdinand's assassination? Austria immediatley pointed the finger at Serbia but when all the evidence is weighed up it seems unlikely that Serbia was responsible.
Firstly, Serbia was exhausted from two previous wars and if they were responsible for the assassination they would have known that it would have led to a war and Serbia was not ready to fight a war as it didn't have enough resources or men.
Austria blamed Serbia as a country but a German minister in Serbia at the time says that the people did not want the Archduke killed. Germany was in the Triple Alliance with Austria so there was no reason for the German to lie unless he feared for his job but that would seem unlikely.
It was Serbia that warned the Austrian finance minister about the fact that there may be an attempt on the Archduke's life. This may seem a cover-up to some but if it was a cover-up the Serbs would have tried to hush up the rest of the world warning the Archduke.
Serbia wanted Bosnia and Herzegovina out of Austro-Hungarian rule and face being annexed at some point. It was the "Mlada Bosna" ("Young Bosnia") , a Serbian terrorist group that plotted and acheived the death of the Archduke.
However, it was the Serbs who sent someone to the Austrian finance minister to pursuade the Archduke not to come to Sarajevo so I am not entirely sure that Serbia was totally to blame.
DID AUSTRIA HAVE TO DECLARE WAR?
Austria-Hungary was seeking out to build their empire and make it even larger than it already was. It was only a matter of time before they decided to invade Serbia and colonise it. It was important to have a growing empire as it showed that you had power and authority and gave you a reputation as a strong country. It was also handy to have this empire for support and resources.
Had Austria-Hungary let Serbia get away with the killing of Franz Ferdinand it would have set a bad example and then the other countries in the empire would think that they could fight for their freedom and that would mean the collapse of Austria-Hungary as a powerful figure in Europe.
I believe that Austria-Hungary had to go to war or face the consequences of their imperium collapsing and all these countries they had empowered declaring independence.
